Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of Obama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that indiv...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Politics & Policy
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1555-5623
DOI: 10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00394.x